A study of distributed lag model using koyck and almon techniques
| dc.contributor.author | Toyin, Kayode Ajetunmobi. | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-09-24T14:06:16Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2025-09-24T14:06:16Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2024 | |
| dc.description | xii, 51p. | |
| dc.description.abstract | This study evaluated the effects of the choice of optimal truncation lag-length, determined the effects of multicollinearity and choice of approximating polynomial, and compared the efficiency of Almon and Koyck estimators. These were with a view to providing information on the effects of multicollinearity, choice of optimal truncation lag-length and choice of approximating polynomial on parameter estimation of Koyck and Almon distributed lag models. The study conducted a comprehensive time series analysis using monthly exchange rates (Naira-Dollar, Naira-Pound and Naira-Euro) and Inflation rate data from Central Bank of Nigeria over the period of January 2004 and April 2021 for Koyck Distributed Lag Model and Almon Distributed Lag Model. R Software Package was used to analyze the data for both models, while varying the order of approximating polynomials (k) and lags (q) with the condition that, degree of polynomial is less that number of lags. The research work employed standard procedure such as statistical significance, information criteria to determine the op timal truncation lag-length required for the implementation of distributed lag models. For the measure of multicollinearity in distributed lag models, Variance inflation factor was also used to determine severity of multicollinearity in the distributed lag models. The efficiency of Koyck and Almon estimators were compared using standard error The results of the study showed that Koyck estimator is preferable to Almon estimator due to lower standard error of Koyck estimators which indicate better precision of estimates. However, Almon estimators are preferable to Koyck estimators given the higher values of variance inflation factors (VIF) of Koyck estimator. To avoid problem of multicollinearity, the Almon estimator is the better choice. The study concluded that polynomial of order 2 is the best approximating polynomial for Almon distributed lag model and that Koyck estimators have higher precision in parameter estimation than Almon estimators. | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Toyin, K. A. (2024). A study of distributed lag model using koyck and almon techniques. Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife. | |
| dc.identifier.other | ror.org/04snhqa82 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://ir.oauife.edu.ng/handle/123456789/6992 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | Department of Mathematics, Falculty of Science, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife. | |
| dc.title | A study of distributed lag model using koyck and almon techniques |