Department of Economics

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Department of Economics

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Open Access
Money in Economic Theory
(Obafemi Awolowo University Press, 1972-11-30) Aluko, Sam
The term money refer to such commodities which serve the three-fold functions of: a recognised and acceptable medium of exchange; a standard of value or a unit of account; and, a symbol or store of wealth, both the traditional and the modern theories- and controversies about money deal with how effectively money can or should perform one or all of these three-fold functions. Furthermore, the objects that have performed these three-fold functions have themselves evolved with the development in economic thought and practice.
Open Access
Economic History as a Critique of the Theory and Practice in Economics
(Obafemi Awolowo University Press, 1978-05-25) Ekundare, R. O.
AN INAUGURAL LECTURE at Ife can now be rightly regarded as an academic 'christening' ceremony, with the Vice-Chancellor as the officiating 'minister' and, the victim of the occasion reciting the 'creed'. Probably, it would have been much easier and enjoyable if this were to be a swearing-in ceremony. The chair which I have the greatest pleasure and honour to inaugurate this afternoon is a new one at Ife, and with a conscious sense of modesty, it is indeed, the first chair of Economic History in Nigeria. My task would have been easier if I have had some Nigerian predecessors who could by now, have argued and concluded the debate on the nature, methods and significance of Economic History within the Nigerian context. Their ratio decidendi could have been available to me in professing economic history. However, I can only hope that by the end of this lecture, I would have opened some new channels of communication and understanding between Economics and Economic History on the one hand and the other areas of social sciences on the other hand
Open Access
A Flow-of-Funds Model of Portfolio Behaviour of Nigerian Commercial Banks.
(Obafemi Awolowo University, 1985) Odedokun, Matthew Odeyinka; Ojo, O. O.; Uwajaren, G. P.
Commercial banks use funds at their disposal to finance cash holding in various forms and investments in various securities and to grant various loans and advances. The study investigates the factors that determine the amount of funds used in each of the above ways. Commercial banks also sometimes consciously borrow in order to expand their asset holdings. The study also investigates their borrowing behaviour. A knowledge of the determinants of the sources-and uses-of-funds behaviour of commercial banks is very useful in formulating and executing monetary policy. Using a flow-of-funds framework of analysis employing quarterly data for Nigerian Commercial banks from the beginning of 1967 to the end of 1981, we find that the amount and the mix of deposit inflows and the inflow of other miscellaneous funds are used as substitutes to borrowing and in financing holdings of various assets except loans and advances which do not appear to be financed by deposit inflows. We also find that commercial bank sources and uses-of-funds behaviour is sensitive to various credit guidelines issued by the Central Bank, that seasonal factors affect the mix of assets held and the mix of liabilities issued just as the rates of return on each asset type and the borrowing costs. In addition, uncertainty about deposit flows increase their cash holding while the actual holdings of each asset and liability are determined by the gap between the existing and desired holdings.
Open Access
Graduate Unemployment Problem and the Nigeria University System: 1970-85.
(Obafemi Awolowo University, 1987) Oladeji, Sunday Idowu; O. Ojo, Oladejo
This study has attempted to understand the nature and causes of graduate unemployment in Nigeria. The relevance of the 'over-production hypothesis' was addressed. A framework for the validation of the hypothesis was developed and applied to the Nigerian situation in the period 1970 - 85. The analytical technique made use of the Incremental Labour-Output Ratio (ILOR) technique to determine the manpower need of each of the three plan periods spanned by the study-period. Furthermore, the consequences of the over-production of university graduates on the issues of 'search unemployment' and the potential mobility of graduates in the country were analysed. The results from the study indicated that the problem of over-production has been in existence in the country since the last one decade or so (1975 - 85). In the period 1975- 80, the rate of over-production was 17% and the unemployment rate was 9.3%. For the period 1980 - 85, direct quantification was impossible because of data problem. The evidence of over-production was confirmed by the fact that the "over-production - free" growth rate of 10.7% was higher than 7.2% target growth rate and the actual growth rate of - 3% recorded in 1981- 84 period. According to our expectation, the fresh graduates (1984 graduates) interviewed appeared to have high potential mobility, only about 4% declared strong preference for own state. Nevertheless, they still demonstrated high expectations about salary and kind of job. Only 6.2% would accept anything less than 300 per month (Grade level 08). This does not, however, provide a fool-proof evidence of search unemployment since just 26.7% of the graduates would sacrifice a period of unemployment for the preferred jobs. Our thesis is that the responsibility for the unemployment lies not with the graduates but the distortion in the economy and the planning of the country's universities.
Open Access
An Econometric Model of Nigeria's Financial Sector.
(Obafemi Awolowo University, 1987) Ikhide, Sylvanus Ihenyen; Ojo, O.
This study has attempted to construct a model for the financial sector of the Nigerian economy. Three subsectors were identified - the commercial banks, the non-bank public and the monetary authorities. Using data collected on a quarterly basis from the economy between 1968 and 1983, equations were formulated to explain the behaviour of these sectors within a general portfolio analysis. Due to the interactive nature of the three subsectors, two-stage least squares method of estimation was employed. To test the validity of the model, a historical simulation of the major endogenous variables was performed in order to find out how well the model tracked actual series. Based on the results of the historical simulation, an unconditional forecasting of the same variables was attempted from the first quarter of 1984 to the last quarter of 1985 to ascertain the forecasting ability of the model. Among others, the study confirmed that the money supply may not be strictly under the control of the Central Bank since it is affected by rich variables as government expenditure and the balance of payments. The study also confirmed the sensitivity of the non-bank public to the yields or returns on government securities. The results also show that the money supply narrowly defined is better approximated by working through its components - Currency and Demand deposits than through a money-multiplier equation. The policy implications of the findings are two-fold. Since there are variables outside the control of the Central Bank affecting the supply of money, the monetary authorities could employ a defensive monetary policy by using open market operations which hitherto has not been used consistently to control the effects of these variables. In addition to this, the Central Bank could easily identify variables determining Currency and Demand deposits holding and through these forecast the level of money supply from time to time.
Open Access
How Important is Oil in Nigeria’s Economic Growth?
(Canadian Center of Science and Education, 2012-04-01) Akinlo, Anthony Enisan
This study assesses the importance of oil in the development of the Nigerian economy in a multivariate VAR model over the period 1960-2009. Empirical evidence shows that the five subsectors are cointegrated and that the oil can cause other non oil sectors to grow. However, oil had adverse effect on the manufacturing sector. Granger causality test finds bidirectional causality between oil and manufacturing, oil and building & construction, manufacturing and building & construction, manufacturing and trade & services, and agriculture and building & construction. It also confirms unidirectional causality from manufacturing to agriculture and trade & services to oil. No causality was found between agriculture and oil, likewise between trade & services and building & construction. The paper recommends appropriate regulatory and pricing reforms in the oil sector to integrate it into the economy and reverse the negative impact of oil on the manufacturing sub sector
Open Access
Financial Policy and Corporate Performance: An Empirical Analysis of Nigerian Listed Companies
(Canadian Center of Science and Education, 2012-04-01) SALAWU, Rafiu Oyesola; ASAOLU, Taiwo Olufemi; YINUSA, Dauda Olalekan
This study investigates the effects of financial policy and firm specific characteristics on corporate performance. Panel data covering a period from 1990 to 2006 for 70 firms were analyzed. Pooled OLS, Fixed Effect Model and Generalized Method of Moment panel model were employed in the estimation and data were sourced from the annual report and financial statement of the sampled firms. The estimation of the dynamic panel-data results show that long-term debts, tangibility, corporate tax rate, dividend policy, financial and stock market development were all positively related with firms’ performance. Furthermore, the positive relationship between stock market development and ROA suggest that as stock market develops, various investment opportunities are opened to firms. Therefore, there is need to monitor the performance of these variables in order to stabilize and enhance performance of listed firms in Nigeria. In addition, the result shows that growth, size and foreign direct investment are negatively related with firms’ performance (ROA). In addition, the result indicates that higher income variability increases the risk that a firm may not be able to cover its interest payment, leading to higher expected costs of financial distress. This may leads to reduce their profitability. The results of the study generally support existing literature on the impact of financial policy on corporate performance.
Open Access
Invigorating foreign aid administration: remittances’ strategy, pro-poor and gender focus
(Financial Innovation, 2015) Adedokun, Adebayo
Background: The pitfall of top-down approach to development is identified as a major cause of aid inefficiency. The approach is fraught with corruption and unethical practices that have bedeviled aid administration. Meanwhile, the impact of remittances has been widely acknowledged in the national development process. Methods: This study therefore reviews the extant foreign aid administrative norms and practices using various conceptual frameworks and diagrammatic representations with a view to identifying the inherent weaknesses in the process. Results: In the light of the findings, the study pitches its tent around the concept of remittances as a learning process for aid administration. Consequently, the pro-poor and gender focus approaches of remittances to development, as well as its bottomup approach is proposed as a conceptual framework for aid administration. Conclusions: The study concludes that, strict adherence to bottom-up approaches proposed in this article would keep corruption and other unethical practices which have rendered the aid administrative process inefficient, to the barest minimum.
Open Access
Financial Globalization and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests
(Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2015) Egbetunde, Tajudeen; Akinlo, Akinlo
This paper examines the long-run relationship between ﬁnancial globalization and economic growth in subSaharan Africa using panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests and panel multivariate ECM. The study ﬁnds that the variables are stationary at ﬁrst difference — I(1). Also, the results reveal that all the variables are cointegrated, that is, they are related in the long run. The results of the ECT test within the framework of panel multivariate ECM conﬁrm the cointegration tests. The paper concludes that there is a long-run relationship between ﬁnancial globalization and economic growth in subSaharan Africa. The paper argues that sub-Saharan African economies will beneﬁt from the era of ﬁnancial globalization in the long run in as much as the governments promote and encourage sound macroeconomic policies and strong institutions.
Open Access
Determinants of Poverty Level in Nigeria
(Canadian Center of Science and Education, 2015-01-29) Olofin, Olabode Philip; Adejumo, Akintoye Victor; Sanusi, Kazeem Abimbola
This study uses annual data between 1990 and 2010, and employs Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) method to examine what determines poverty level in Nigeria. Unlike many studies, we measure poverty with poverty index generated from combination of per worker agricultural value added, real per capita income and consumption per capita using principal component analysis and common measurement of poverty (i.e. per capita real income). We first remove the trend component of our dependent variables (poverty index), using Butterworth filter and then regressed them on the important variables of interest. The findings show negative relationship between political right in levels and poverty, but positive relationship was found when political right was differenced. This result was not statistically significant. Political terror was found to reduce poverty with statistically significant result in levels when per capita real income was used for poverty, and became positively related with poverty when differenced. The result was statistically significant. We found that civil liberty was positively related to poverty, but the result was not statistically significant. Democracy was noted for reducing poverty with statistically significant result, while the increase in population and poverty were positively related with statistically significant result
Open Access
Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1970-2005)
(2015-03-23) Adefeso, Hammed Adetola
The study evaluated the trend and composition of government tax revenue and expenditure and also determine whether non-productive government expenditure and non-distortionary taxation have had neutral effect on growth in Nigeria as predicted by theory. It examined the impact of fiscal deficit on economic growth in Nigeria. This was with a view to examining the linkage between fiscal policy and economic growth in Nigeria during the period 1970 to 2005. The study utilized secondary data. Data on economic growth, expenditures on education, health, agriculture, company income tax, custom and exercise duty and fiscal deficit were obtained from the statistical bulletin published by the Central Bank of Nigeria. The study adopted the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) analytical techniques to measure the short run disequilibrium among cointegrated variables. The stationarity and cointegration properties of variables were also examined using Augumented Dickey Fuller test and Johansen co-integration techniques, respectively. The result showed that government expenditure (on education, health transport and communication and agriculture) had significant positive effect on growth in the short run (t=2.6; p< 0.05). The study also showed that both nondistortionary taxation and non – productive government expenditure had neutral effect on growth. The exclusion of the variable (s) did not significantly alter the result as shown by the coefficient of determination for the short run models (F-statistic =2.77 with p-value < 0.05 for model 4) and the long run models (F-statistic 434.9 with p – value < 0.05 for model 4). Fiscal deficit had a negative but not significant impact on economic growth in the long run (t=0.76; P>0.05). The study concluded that the various components of government expenditure and tax revenue (distortionary and non-distortionary) played a crucial role in determining economic growth in Nigeria.
Open Access
An Economic Analysis of Funding and Enrolment in Nigerian Universities: 1970- 2003
(2015-04-02) Akanbi, Bosede Esther
The study examined the relationship between funding and enrolment in Nigerian universities between 1970 and 2003. It also analysed the trends and patterns of funding and enrolments in Nigerian universities and the causality between them. These were done with the aim of drawing out the implications of the findings for effective planning on university enrolment. The study utilized secondary data and these were obtained from the National University Commission (NUC), Annual Abstract of Statistics of the Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) now Bureau of Statistics and Abstract of Statistics of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Analytical techniques were both descriptive and inferential. Data were expressed in ratios, percentages and tables for the descriptive analyses. The inferential aspects used Ordinary Least Square regression analysis on students' enrolment, funding, academic staff and unemployment. The study showed that only recurrent grants had significant positive effect on university enrolment (t=2.50, p<0.05), while capital funding had positive but insignificant effect on enrolment (t = 0.47, P>0.05). The result also showed that the size of academic staff had positive but insignificant effect on enrolment (t = 1.31, P>0.05). Moreover, the Granger causality test showed that funding had significant causal effect on enrolment ( F= 3.37, p< 0.05), suggesting that students' intake were determined by the quantum of financial resources available to the universities. The study concluded that running and management of universities in terms of students' intake require adequate funding and that funding was the main determinant of enrolments in the university system.
Open Access
Effects of Health Investment on Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1977-2004
(2015-04-10) Akintunde, Temitope Sade
The study appraised the various health policies of the government in Nigeria and assessed the trend and pattern of government spending on health during the period 1977-2004. This was with a view to determining the short run and long run effects of investment in health on economic growth. The study used secondary data collected from Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and the International Financial Statistics (IFS) published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Time series properties of the variables were analyzed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. Co integration and Vector Error Correction Techniques were employed to empirically determine the impact of health spending on economic growth. The findings showed that several health policies had been put in place in Nigeria in the various development plans but some of the policies were not well implemented. For instance, in the fourth development plan, there was to be a provision of adequate and effective primary health care for the entire population and the goal was to achieve 80% coverage of the whole country by 1985 and 100% by the year 2000 but this was not fully achieved. The study further revealed that government spent more on payment of wages and salaries than on capital projects. Recurrent expenditure as a percentage of total health spending was 60% in 1978 and 84% in 2003 while capital expenditure was 40% in 1978 16% in 2003. The results of the Vector Error Correction Model showed that, the short run, the impact of health expenditure on economic growth did not converge to the long run growth (t = 3.09, p< 0.05). In the long run, health expenditure in real terms had a positive and significant impact on the economic growth (t = 4.56, p< 0.05). The findings also showed that private investment had a positive and significant influence on the economic growth (t = 31.86, p< 0.05) while the degree of openness had a negative and significant influence on the economic growth in the long run (t = -6.92, p< 0.05). The study concluded that there was high prospect for investment in health to boost economic growth if government invested more in this aspect of human capital rather than physical capital.
Open Access
The Dynamics of Money Supply, Exchange Rate and Inflation in Nigeria (1986-2004)
(2015-04-13) Alfred, Ayodele Samuel
The study examined the exchange rate policies and monetary policies in Nigeria over the period of study 1986 – 2004, analysed the trend and pattern of exchange rate, money supply and inflation, investigated the long run relationship between monetary growth, exchange rate and inflation in Nigeria, and also determined the relative contribution of money supply and exchange rate on inflation. This was with a view to determining the relationship between money supply, exchange rate and inflation in Nigeria. The study utilized secondary data. Quarterly data on money supply, exchange rate and inflation in Nigeria covering the period 1986 – 2004 were collected from Statistical Bulletin published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and International Financial Statistics (IFS) published by International Monetary Fund. The stationary and cointegration properties of the variables were also tested using the ADF. The Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) analytical technique was used to analyse the data. The appraisal of exchange rate policies and monetary policies in Nigeria with particular reference to inflation showed that in the long run, money supply had significant negative effects on inflation (t = 1.16; p<0.05). Exchange rate also had significant negative effect on inflation (t = 0.55; p<0.05), real output growth had significant positive impact on inflationary pressure in the long run (t = 1.99; p<0.05), while foreign price was positively related to inflation but not significant in the long run (t = 0.35; p>0.05). The empirical deductions from the study also showed that in the short run, there was the presence of significant feedback from the long run to short run disequilibrium (t=-3.6363, p<0.05). The estimates from the variance decomposition and impulse response showed that money supply (F=4.48; p<0.05) exchange rate (F=2.75; p<0.10) and foreign price (F=2.38; p<0.10) had stronger influences on domestic prices than real output. The study concluded that inflationary pressure was not basically money supply-induced but could be caused by the level of variations in the exchange rate.
Open Access
Effects of Human Capital Development on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1970-2004)
(2015-04-15) Aremo, Adeleke Gabriel
The study examined the pattern of investment in health and education and assessed their effects on economic growth with a view to analysing the effects of government investments in human capital on the growth process of the Nigerian economy. Secondary data were used for the study. Annual data on gross domestic product (GDP), capital expenditures on education and capital expenditures on health for the period between 1970 and 2004 were obtained from the statistical bulletins published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Annual Abstract of Statistics published by the National Bureau of Statistics. Both descriptive statistics and econometric techniques were used to analyse the data. To avoid spurious regression, the time series properties of variables were subjected to stationarity test using Philips-Perron test and Augmented Dickey Fuller test. Cointegration test was applied to check for the long-run relationship among the integrated variables. The estimation techniques used were Ordinary Least Squares and Error Correction Model (ECM) P, The results of the study indicated that recurrent expenditures on education as percentage of total expenditure on education was on the average 67 percent, while the capital expenditure on education as percentage of total expenditure on education was 40.4 percent. The recurrent expenditure on health as a percentage of total expenditure on health was on the average 58.2 percent while the capital expenditure on health was 38.1 percent. The primary school enrolment formed a major part of the total school enrolment but with a relatively low growth rate of 1.00 percent on the average. The growth rates of secondary school enrolment and tertiary school enrolment averaged 2.5 percent and 2.8 percent respectively. The results also showed that capital expenditure on health was significantly and positively associated with economic growth (1=3.70, p<0.05). The capital expenditure on education was positively related to economic growth but not significant 0-0.18, p>0.05). The tertiary school enrolment variable was positively related to economic growth but not significant= (1=1.28, >0.05). The coefficient of error correction terra was -0.46 and was significant 0=3.16, p<0.05) and this implied that 46 per cent of any disequilibrium in economic growth in the previous year was adjusted for in the following year. The study concluded that effects of human capital development components of health and education were mixed. On the one hand, the health component impacted positively on the growth process; on the other hand, the education investment expenditure; had not contributed significantly to economic growth in Nigeria.
Open Access
Effects of Economic Liberalisation on the Performance of Nigeria's Telecommunications Industry (1986-2004)
(2015-04-15) Arawomo, Omosola
The study examined various aspects of the liberalisation programme that had been implemented in Nigeria's telecommunications industry, determined the effects of increased competition and analysed the influence of technological change on the performance of the telecommunications industry. This was with a view to examining the role of reforms on the telecommunications industry's performance in Nigeria. The study used secondary data sourced from the World Telecommunication Indicators Database obtained from the International Telecommunications Union and the Nigerian Communications Commission for the period 1986-2004. The variables included Telephone Subscribers per 100 inhabitants, Employee per subscriber, number of operators in the telecommunications industry, real per capita income and population. Descriptive statistical techniques and econometric technique, specifically the Ordinary Least Squares were used to analyse the data. The study found out that the telecommunications industry had undergone several transformations, beginning with the commercialisation of the Nigerian Telecommunications Limited (NITEL) in 1992. For example, the telephone subscribers per 100 inhabitants grew from 0.252 in 1986 to 8.004 in 2004. The number of operators, also within the same period grew from 1 to 26. It was also found out that increased competition was positively associated with performance in terms of telephone subscribers per 100, (t = 4.02, p<0.05) but was negatively and insignificantly associated with performance in terms of employee per subscribers (t = -0.63, p>0.05). The results also showed that technological change had significant positive effects on performance (only in terms of telephone subscribers per 100), (t = 4.60, p<0.05). The study concluded that economic liberalisation was effective in improving the performance of the telecommunications industry with technological change being more effective.
Open Access
The Impact of Public Expenditures on Poverty Alleviation in Osun State
(2015-04-28) Nwankpa, Nneka Ngozi
The study assessed the poverty profile in Osun State, examined the patterns of government expenditure, analyzed the effects of government spending on infrastructure and social services. It also identified the constraints militating against government efforts in reducing poverty in the study area. This was with a view to examining the impact of public expenditure on poverty reduction in Osun State. Primary data were obtained through questionnaire administered on 1200 randomly selected respondents drawn from 6 purposively selected local government councils (Ife South, Obokun, Iwo, Egbedore, Olorunda and Boripe) in the three senatorial districts comprising of 6 administrative zones in Osun State. Three communities from each of these 6 local government areas were purposively selected to ensure that the various socio-economic, geographical and environmental characteristics were adequately reflected in the study. Finally, 67 randomly selected households were interviewed in each community. The field work also included Focused Group Discussion (FGD), conducted in six communities namely Boluwaduro, Ilare, Molete, Ofatedo, Oba-Oke and Ada. Ten male and 10 female adults (between ages 35 and 65 years) were interviewed. Secondary data were obtained from Osun State Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) and United Nations Development Programmes (UNDP). Data were analyzed using qualitative and descriptive statistics. The study revealed that the incidence of poverty in Osun State was high as indicated by the Income Poverty Index (IPI) and the Human Poverty Index (HPI) values of 0.40 and 0.42 respectively compared with the UNDP Benchmark of 0.5. The study also showed that all the people lacked adequate access to basic economic and social services such as health services, good roads and pipe-borne water. Education was identified as a major factor in explaining the high incidence and severity of poverty as the Education Index value (El) was 0.38 compared with the UNDP Benchmark. Furthermore, the results showed that the pattern of government spending in the state favoured general administration more than economic and social services. For example, between 1996 and 2001, the education sub-sector recorded a continuous decline in its capital allocation from 15.4 percent to 3.6 percent while the least share of general administration to capital estimate was 9.3 percent in 1995. Also, 85 percent of the respondents believed that government spending on infrastructure and social services, though relatively low, improved the welfare of the people. Finally, 24 percent of the respondents believed that inadequate infrastructural facilities militated against government efforts in poverty reduction, while 26 percent believed that economic mismanagement in terms of corruption constrained poverty reduction efforts by the government. The study concluded that public expenditures can reduce the incidence and severity of poverty in the state. However, the resources committed to social and economic services by the government in the state had not been adequate to eradicate the high incidence of poverty.
Open Access
Labour Market Expectation and Demand for Higher Education in Osun State
(2015-05-04) Olabiyi, Kehinde Ajike
The study examined the changing labour market expectations at different educational levels and analyzed how the expectations had informed decision for higher education in Osun State. This was with a view to providing insight into the intensity of demand for higher education. The data for the study were obtained from primary and secondary sources. The primary data were generated from a survey of a purposefully sampled final year students of Senior Secondary Schools; final year students of tertiary institutions; currently serving National Youth Service Corps members and postgraduate students. These were drawn from selected six survey areas in Osun State, namely Ile-Ife, Osogbo, Ilesha, Ire, Ede and Esa-Oke. One private and one public secondary schools were selected from the survey areas and forty students were randomly sampled from each of the schools. A total of 1430 students were randomly sampled from the five selected tertiary institutions in the survey areas. The five tertiary institutions were: Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife; Osun State College of Education, Ilesha; Osun State College of Education, Esa-Oke; Federal Polytechnic, Ede; and Osun State Polytechnic, Ire. Twenty-five National Youth Service Corps members from each of the survey areas who were about entering the labour market were contacted during their weekly Community Development Programme for the survey. Also, 165 Post graduate students were randomly selected across all the faculties of learning in Obafemi Awolowo University for the study. A total of 2,225 respondents were sampled in the study. The secondary data were collected from the publications of Federal Office of Statistics and National University Commission (NUC) Statistical Digest. The data were analyzed using descriptive and econometric techniques. The results showed that employment problem was much higher for secondary school leavers (25.3%) than tertiary institution graduates (6.5%). However, a majority of the respondents across levels of education; secondary school students (79%), tertiary students (63%), corps members (67%) and postgraduate students (87%) showed much optimism in terms of job expectations. Their mean income expectation of N67,000.00 per month was also observed to be generally higher than what is obtainable in the labour market for fresh graduates at present. The trend however showed a downward adjustment as the level of education increased. The demand for higher education was found not to be associated with government subsidy (x2 = 4.06 for secondary school, 1.19 for tertiary institution and 6.13 for youth corps, p < 0.05). Similarly, age (x2 = 4.53 for secondary school, 0.05 for tertiary institution and 0.31 for youth corps respondents, p < 0.05) and father's occupation (x2 = 11.07 for secondary school, 2.45 for tertiary institution, and 6.10 for youth corps; p < 0.05) were not respectively significant determinants of higher education in the study area. However, mother's occupation significantly influenced demand for higher education among the tertiary institution respondents (x2=15.41; p, < 0.05), while it was insignificant for secondary school respondents (x2 = 10.30; p<0.5) and youth corps members (x2=5.85; p<0.05). The perception of employment opportunity also influenced the demand for higher education for tertiary institution students (x2 = 8.61, p< 0.05) and for youth corps members (x2 = 13.30, p < 0.05). The logistic regression results showed also that only the perception of employment opportunity in the labour market significantly influenced the demand for higher education at 5% level of significance. The study concluded that labour market expectation was high in Osun State and such expectation was responsible for increased demand for higher education in the state.
Open Access
Openness and the Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on Real Output in Nigeria (1960-2003)
(2015-05-19) Saibu, Olufemi Muibi
The study examined the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the real output growth in the small open Nigerian economy. Specifically, it verified the implication of increasing economic openness on the efficacy of monetary and fiscal policy and also established whether fiscal and monetary policies had symmetrical effects on real output in Nigeria. This was with a view to establishing the validity of macroeconomic policy ineffectiveness proposition of new classical school in Nigeria. The study used annual secondary time series data from 1960 to 2003 on Nigeria, collected from International Financial Statistics (IFS) Yearbook published by International Monetary Fund (IMF), 1990 and 2003 editions. A modified Generalized Autoregressive Consistent Heteroskedastic (GARCH) model and Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) technique were used to generate the anticipated and unanticipated series used for estimating an open economy version of the new classical macroeconomic model. Two measures of fiscal and monetary shocks were combined with openness and real oil price shocks in a VECM model to assess the effects of anticipated and unanticipated policy shocks on the output equations and to draw policy inferences The empirical results showed that anticipated and unanticipated fiscal and monetary shocks had no significant positive effects on real output. Furthermore, the degree of openness and oil price shocks {with coefficients -0.434 (t-value -2.08,p< 0.05) and -0.684 (t-value -2.11,p<0.05)} had negative implication on the efficacy of macroeconomic policy in Nigeria. Thus, a 10% increase in fiscal and monetary policies in the presence of increasing economic openness and oil price shocks would cause more than 4.34% and 6.84% reduction in real output respectively. In addition, the results showed that both expansionary and contractionary policy shocks had adverse negative effects on real output growth. Specifically, while expansionary policy shocks had negative {–1.50(t-value -3.76, p<0.05)} as against the expected positive effects, the contractionary policy shocks had no significant negative {0.01 (t-value -0.03,p>0.05)} effects on real output in Nigeria. Similarly, the impulse responses and variance decomposition analysis also established that monetary and fiscal policies played little causal role in explaining real output fluctuations in Nigeria. The conclusion that emerged from the results was that the open macroeconomic version of policy ineffectiveness proposition was valid with respect to fiscal and monetary policy shocks in Nigeria. This is in consonance with earlier works in this area on other countries. Similarly, the result was in agreement with the Dutch Disease Syndrome and also confirmed that policy asymmetry was a Nigerian phenomenon.
Open Access
Social Demand and the Supply of University Education in Nigeria, 1980-2005
(2015-05-19) Satope, Bola Funmilayo
The study examined the validity of the Fields' proposition that continuous expansion of universities in Nigeria might be due to political response to social demand. It also analysed the trend and pattern of university education between 1980 and 2005 and examined the influence of higher education policy on university expansion. This was with a view to determining the factors responsible for the rapid expansion in university education in the last two and a half decades. The study used secondary data obtained from the Joint Admission and Matriculation Board (JAMB), National Universities Commission (NUC), the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and Annual Abstract of Statistics from National Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive and quantitative methods of analysis were used. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimation technique was used to examine the extent to which social demand consideration had influenced the expansion in university education. The study showed an upward trend in expansion of universities from 13 at the beginning of 1980 to 76 in 2005. This implied a growth rate of 7% per annum. Also, the study showed that higher education policy had expansionary effect on the number of universities in Nigeria. The policy of equity in the distribution of universities and increased access to university education accounted for the expansion of the universities. Also, the policy of private involvement in the educational sector brought about the increase in the number of universities as there was rapid increase in private universities from 1999.The number of private universities rose by 700% between 1999 and 2005. The spatial pattem of enrolment and admission varied with more applicants from the Southwestem and Southeastern parts of Nigeria. The percentage admitted was more for the Northern part than the other zones. 11.6 per cent of the applicants from the Western zone were admitted, 9.1% of those from the Eastern zone while 20.5% were admitted from the Northern part between 1980 and 1985. The result of the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method showed that the social demand significantly influenced the expansion in the number of universities (t=3.87, p<0.05), confirming Fields' postulation. However, it showed that there were still other factors like population growth (t=8.48, p<0.05), human resource needs (t=6.58, p<0.05), and growth rate of the economy (t=8.35, p<0.05), which significantly affected the expansion of universities. The study concluded that the Fields' proposition was validated in the context of the Nigerian situation. Nevertheless, the rapid expansion of university education in the country was not exclusively a matter of political response to social demand. It was also greatly influenced by such factors as growth rate of the economy, human resource needs and population.