Theses and Dissertations

Permanent URI for this collection

https://ir.oauife.edu.ng/handle/123456789/579

Theses and Dissertations (Economics)

Browse

Now showing 1 - 5 of 14

Open Access
Dynamics of Inflation and Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1970 - 2005
(2015-08-21) Adegboye, Abiodun Adewale
The study examined the nexus between inflation and economic growth in the Nigerian economy. It specifically analyzed the dynamic and causal interactions between the two variables; determined the critical level of inflation for target growth rate and examined the extent to which money supply had been driving inflation-growth process in Nigeria. This was with a view to providing empirical evidence for the rationality behind inflation targeting framework in the Nigerian economy. The study employed quarterly time series data, from 1970 to 2005, collected from various issues of Central Bank of Nigeria's Statistical Bulletin and Annual Report and Statement of Account as well as 2005 edition of International Financial Statistics published by the International Monetary Fund. A VECM model was adopted in the analyses of the interactions between inflation and growth. Also a modified version of threshold methodology was estimated, using OLS, in determining the threshold level of inflation for Nigeria. Descriptive statistics such as table and charts were employed to capture the influence of money supply on inflation-growth process. The results showed that there was a significant inverse relationship between inflation and growth in the short run (t= -2.03, p<0.05) and positive but significant relationship in the long run (t=4.05, p<0.05) only at a low level of inflation. Also, the money supply (t=-2.13, p<0.05) and economic growth (t=4.87, p<0.05) adjusted to their equilibrium positions within two quarters. Results further showed that causality occurred from economic growth to inflation (F=14.48, p=0.00) at five per cent while substantial feedback effects occurred between inflation and growth (F=7.54, p=0.07) ten per cent significant levels. The impulse responses and variance decomposition analyses (with forecast error ranges from 0.34 - 0.87) established that output growth was an important factor in general price level determination in Nigeria. The critical level of inflation for Nigeria was estimated to be at 4 per cent. This indicated that to incl. ease economic growth in Nigeria by 1.87 per cent, the inflation rate must be below 4 per cent. Furthermore, the results showed that money supply had been driving both inflation and growth separately, however money supply was significant in implementing monetary policy for both long run (t=5.36, p<0.05) and short run (t=4.87, p<0.05) in Nigeria. The study concluded that the phenomenon of inflation was a long run issue in Nigeria and an inflation targeting policy was long overdue for its formal implementation in monetary management in the Nigerian economy.
Open Access
Openness and the Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on Real Output in Nigeria (1960-2003)
(2015-05-19) Saibu, Olufemi Muibi
The study examined the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the real output growth in the small open Nigerian economy. Specifically, it verified the implication of increasing economic openness on the efficacy of monetary and fiscal policy and also established whether fiscal and monetary policies had symmetrical effects on real output in Nigeria. This was with a view to establishing the validity of macroeconomic policy ineffectiveness proposition of new classical school in Nigeria. The study used annual secondary time series data from 1960 to 2003 on Nigeria, collected from International Financial Statistics (IFS) Yearbook published by International Monetary Fund (IMF), 1990 and 2003 editions. A modified Generalized Autoregressive Consistent Heteroskedastic (GARCH) model and Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) technique were used to generate the anticipated and unanticipated series used for estimating an open economy version of the new classical macroeconomic model. Two measures of fiscal and monetary shocks were combined with openness and real oil price shocks in a VECM model to assess the effects of anticipated and unanticipated policy shocks on the output equations and to draw policy inferences The empirical results showed that anticipated and unanticipated fiscal and monetary shocks had no significant positive effects on real output. Furthermore, the degree of openness and oil price shocks {with coefficients -0.434 (t-value -2.08,p< 0.05) and -0.684 (t-value -2.11,p<0.05)} had negative implication on the efficacy of macroeconomic policy in Nigeria. Thus, a 10% increase in fiscal and monetary policies in the presence of increasing economic openness and oil price shocks would cause more than 4.34% and 6.84% reduction in real output respectively. In addition, the results showed that both expansionary and contractionary policy shocks had adverse negative effects on real output growth. Specifically, while expansionary policy shocks had negative {–1.50(t-value -3.76, p<0.05)} as against the expected positive effects, the contractionary policy shocks had no significant negative {0.01 (t-value -0.03,p>0.05)} effects on real output in Nigeria. Similarly, the impulse responses and variance decomposition analysis also established that monetary and fiscal policies played little causal role in explaining real output fluctuations in Nigeria. The conclusion that emerged from the results was that the open macroeconomic version of policy ineffectiveness proposition was valid with respect to fiscal and monetary policy shocks in Nigeria. This is in consonance with earlier works in this area on other countries. Similarly, the result was in agreement with the Dutch Disease Syndrome and also confirmed that policy asymmetry was a Nigerian phenomenon.
Open Access
Social Demand and the Supply of University Education in Nigeria, 1980-2005
(2015-05-19) Satope, Bola Funmilayo
The study examined the validity of the Fields' proposition that continuous expansion of universities in Nigeria might be due to political response to social demand. It also analysed the trend and pattern of university education between 1980 and 2005 and examined the influence of higher education policy on university expansion. This was with a view to determining the factors responsible for the rapid expansion in university education in the last two and a half decades. The study used secondary data obtained from the Joint Admission and Matriculation Board (JAMB), National Universities Commission (NUC), the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and Annual Abstract of Statistics from National Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive and quantitative methods of analysis were used. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimation technique was used to examine the extent to which social demand consideration had influenced the expansion in university education. The study showed an upward trend in expansion of universities from 13 at the beginning of 1980 to 76 in 2005. This implied a growth rate of 7% per annum. Also, the study showed that higher education policy had expansionary effect on the number of universities in Nigeria. The policy of equity in the distribution of universities and increased access to university education accounted for the expansion of the universities. Also, the policy of private involvement in the educational sector brought about the increase in the number of universities as there was rapid increase in private universities from 1999.The number of private universities rose by 700% between 1999 and 2005. The spatial pattem of enrolment and admission varied with more applicants from the Southwestem and Southeastern parts of Nigeria. The percentage admitted was more for the Northern part than the other zones. 11.6 per cent of the applicants from the Western zone were admitted, 9.1% of those from the Eastern zone while 20.5% were admitted from the Northern part between 1980 and 1985. The result of the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method showed that the social demand significantly influenced the expansion in the number of universities (t=3.87, p<0.05), confirming Fields' postulation. However, it showed that there were still other factors like population growth (t=8.48, p<0.05), human resource needs (t=6.58, p<0.05), and growth rate of the economy (t=8.35, p<0.05), which significantly affected the expansion of universities. The study concluded that the Fields' proposition was validated in the context of the Nigerian situation. Nevertheless, the rapid expansion of university education in the country was not exclusively a matter of political response to social demand. It was also greatly influenced by such factors as growth rate of the economy, human resource needs and population.
Open Access
Labour Market Expectation and Demand for Higher Education in Osun State
(2015-05-04) Olabiyi, Kehinde Ajike
The study examined the changing labour market expectations at different educational levels and analyzed how the expectations had informed decision for higher education in Osun State. This was with a view to providing insight into the intensity of demand for higher education. The data for the study were obtained from primary and secondary sources. The primary data were generated from a survey of a purposefully sampled final year students of Senior Secondary Schools; final year students of tertiary institutions; currently serving National Youth Service Corps members and postgraduate students. These were drawn from selected six survey areas in Osun State, namely Ile-Ife, Osogbo, Ilesha, Ire, Ede and Esa-Oke. One private and one public secondary schools were selected from the survey areas and forty students were randomly sampled from each of the schools. A total of 1430 students were randomly sampled from the five selected tertiary institutions in the survey areas. The five tertiary institutions were: Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife; Osun State College of Education, Ilesha; Osun State College of Education, Esa-Oke; Federal Polytechnic, Ede; and Osun State Polytechnic, Ire. Twenty-five National Youth Service Corps members from each of the survey areas who were about entering the labour market were contacted during their weekly Community Development Programme for the survey. Also, 165 Post graduate students were randomly selected across all the faculties of learning in Obafemi Awolowo University for the study. A total of 2,225 respondents were sampled in the study. The secondary data were collected from the publications of Federal Office of Statistics and National University Commission (NUC) Statistical Digest. The data were analyzed using descriptive and econometric techniques. The results showed that employment problem was much higher for secondary school leavers (25.3%) than tertiary institution graduates (6.5%). However, a majority of the respondents across levels of education; secondary school students (79%), tertiary students (63%), corps members (67%) and postgraduate students (87%) showed much optimism in terms of job expectations. Their mean income expectation of N67,000.00 per month was also observed to be generally higher than what is obtainable in the labour market for fresh graduates at present. The trend however showed a downward adjustment as the level of education increased. The demand for higher education was found not to be associated with government subsidy (x2 = 4.06 for secondary school, 1.19 for tertiary institution and 6.13 for youth corps, p < 0.05). Similarly, age (x2 = 4.53 for secondary school, 0.05 for tertiary institution and 0.31 for youth corps respondents, p < 0.05) and father's occupation (x2 = 11.07 for secondary school, 2.45 for tertiary institution, and 6.10 for youth corps; p < 0.05) were not respectively significant determinants of higher education in the study area. However, mother's occupation significantly influenced demand for higher education among the tertiary institution respondents (x2=15.41; p, < 0.05), while it was insignificant for secondary school respondents (x2 = 10.30; p<0.5) and youth corps members (x2=5.85; p<0.05). The perception of employment opportunity also influenced the demand for higher education for tertiary institution students (x2 = 8.61, p< 0.05) and for youth corps members (x2 = 13.30, p < 0.05). The logistic regression results showed also that only the perception of employment opportunity in the labour market significantly influenced the demand for higher education at 5% level of significance. The study concluded that labour market expectation was high in Osun State and such expectation was responsible for increased demand for higher education in the state.
Open Access
The Impact of Public Expenditures on Poverty Alleviation in Osun State
(2015-04-28) Nwankpa, Nneka Ngozi
The study assessed the poverty profile in Osun State, examined the patterns of government expenditure, analyzed the effects of government spending on infrastructure and social services. It also identified the constraints militating against government efforts in reducing poverty in the study area. This was with a view to examining the impact of public expenditure on poverty reduction in Osun State. Primary data were obtained through questionnaire administered on 1200 randomly selected respondents drawn from 6 purposively selected local government councils (Ife South, Obokun, Iwo, Egbedore, Olorunda and Boripe) in the three senatorial districts comprising of 6 administrative zones in Osun State. Three communities from each of these 6 local government areas were purposively selected to ensure that the various socio-economic, geographical and environmental characteristics were adequately reflected in the study. Finally, 67 randomly selected households were interviewed in each community. The field work also included Focused Group Discussion (FGD), conducted in six communities namely Boluwaduro, Ilare, Molete, Ofatedo, Oba-Oke and Ada. Ten male and 10 female adults (between ages 35 and 65 years) were interviewed. Secondary data were obtained from Osun State Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) and United Nations Development Programmes (UNDP). Data were analyzed using qualitative and descriptive statistics. The study revealed that the incidence of poverty in Osun State was high as indicated by the Income Poverty Index (IPI) and the Human Poverty Index (HPI) values of 0.40 and 0.42 respectively compared with the UNDP Benchmark of 0.5. The study also showed that all the people lacked adequate access to basic economic and social services such as health services, good roads and pipe-borne water. Education was identified as a major factor in explaining the high incidence and severity of poverty as the Education Index value (El) was 0.38 compared with the UNDP Benchmark. Furthermore, the results showed that the pattern of government spending in the state favoured general administration more than economic and social services. For example, between 1996 and 2001, the education sub-sector recorded a continuous decline in its capital allocation from 15.4 percent to 3.6 percent while the least share of general administration to capital estimate was 9.3 percent in 1995. Also, 85 percent of the respondents believed that government spending on infrastructure and social services, though relatively low, improved the welfare of the people. Finally, 24 percent of the respondents believed that inadequate infrastructural facilities militated against government efforts in poverty reduction, while 26 percent believed that economic mismanagement in terms of corruption constrained poverty reduction efforts by the government. The study concluded that public expenditures can reduce the incidence and severity of poverty in the state. However, the resources committed to social and economic services by the government in the state had not been adequate to eradicate the high incidence of poverty.

Browse

Recent Submissions