Department of Economics-Journal Articles

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Journal Articles (Economics)

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    Open Access
    How Important is Oil in Nigeria’s Economic Growth?
    (Canadian Center of Science and Education, 2012-04-01) Akinlo, Anthony Enisan
    This study assesses the importance of oil in the development of the Nigerian economy in a multivariate VAR model over the period 1960-2009. Empirical evidence shows that the five subsectors are cointegrated and that the oil can cause other non oil sectors to grow. However, oil had adverse effect on the manufacturing sector. Granger causality test finds bidirectional causality between oil and manufacturing, oil and building & construction, manufacturing and building & construction, manufacturing and trade & services, and agriculture and building & construction. It also confirms unidirectional causality from manufacturing to agriculture and trade & services to oil. No causality was found between agriculture and oil, likewise between trade & services and building & construction. The paper recommends appropriate regulatory and pricing reforms in the oil sector to integrate it into the economy and reverse the negative impact of oil on the manufacturing sub sector
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    Financial Policy and Corporate Performance: An Empirical Analysis of Nigerian Listed Companies
    (Canadian Center of Science and Education, 2012-04-01) SALAWU, Rafiu Oyesola; ASAOLU, Taiwo Olufemi; YINUSA, Dauda Olalekan
    This study investigates the effects of financial policy and firm specific characteristics on corporate performance. Panel data covering a period from 1990 to 2006 for 70 firms were analyzed. Pooled OLS, Fixed Effect Model and Generalized Method of Moment panel model were employed in the estimation and data were sourced from the annual report and financial statement of the sampled firms. The estimation of the dynamic panel-data results show that long-term debts, tangibility, corporate tax rate, dividend policy, financial and stock market development were all positively related with firms’ performance. Furthermore, the positive relationship between stock market development and ROA suggest that as stock market develops, various investment opportunities are opened to firms. Therefore, there is need to monitor the performance of these variables in order to stabilize and enhance performance of listed firms in Nigeria. In addition, the result shows that growth, size and foreign direct investment are negatively related with firms’ performance (ROA). In addition, the result indicates that higher income variability increases the risk that a firm may not be able to cover its interest payment, leading to higher expected costs of financial distress. This may leads to reduce their profitability. The results of the study generally support existing literature on the impact of financial policy on corporate performance.
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    Invigorating foreign aid administration: remittances’ strategy, pro-poor and gender focus
    (Financial Innovation, 2015) Adedokun, Adebayo
    Background: The pitfall of top-down approach to development is identified as a major cause of aid inefficiency. The approach is fraught with corruption and unethical practices that have bedeviled aid administration. Meanwhile, the impact of remittances has been widely acknowledged in the national development process. Methods: This study therefore reviews the extant foreign aid administrative norms and practices using various conceptual frameworks and diagrammatic representations with a view to identifying the inherent weaknesses in the process. Results: In the light of the findings, the study pitches its tent around the concept of remittances as a learning process for aid administration. Consequently, the pro-poor and gender focus approaches of remittances to development, as well as its bottomup approach is proposed as a conceptual framework for aid administration. Conclusions: The study concludes that, strict adherence to bottom-up approaches proposed in this article would keep corruption and other unethical practices which have rendered the aid administrative process inefficient, to the barest minimum.
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    Financial Globalization and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests
    (Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2015) Egbetunde, Tajudeen; Akinlo, Akinlo
    This paper examines the long-run relationship between financial globalization and economic growth in subSaharan Africa using panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests and panel multivariate ECM. The study finds that the variables are stationary at first difference — I(1). Also, the results reveal that all the variables are cointegrated, that is, they are related in the long run. The results of the ECT test within the framework of panel multivariate ECM confirm the cointegration tests. The paper concludes that there is a long-run relationship between financial globalization and economic growth in subSaharan Africa. The paper argues that sub-Saharan African economies will benefit from the era of financial globalization in the long run in as much as the governments promote and encourage sound macroeconomic policies and strong institutions.
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    Determinants of Poverty Level in Nigeria
    (Canadian Center of Science and Education, 2015-01-29) Olofin, Olabode Philip; Adejumo, Akintoye Victor; Sanusi, Kazeem Abimbola
    This study uses annual data between 1990 and 2010, and employs Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) method to examine what determines poverty level in Nigeria. Unlike many studies, we measure poverty with poverty index generated from combination of per worker agricultural value added, real per capita income and consumption per capita using principal component analysis and common measurement of poverty (i.e. per capita real income). We first remove the trend component of our dependent variables (poverty index), using Butterworth filter and then regressed them on the important variables of interest. The findings show negative relationship between political right in levels and poverty, but positive relationship was found when political right was differenced. This result was not statistically significant. Political terror was found to reduce poverty with statistically significant result in levels when per capita real income was used for poverty, and became positively related with poverty when differenced. The result was statistically significant. We found that civil liberty was positively related to poverty, but the result was not statistically significant. Democracy was noted for reducing poverty with statistically significant result, while the increase in population and poverty were positively related with statistically significant result
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    External shocks and macroeconomic responses in Nigeria: A global VAR approach
    (Cogent Economics & Finance, 2016-10-17) Oyelam, Lukman Oyeyinka; Olomola, P.A.
    : This study investigates the macroeconomic responses of Nigerian economy to external shock between 1986 and 2014. Specifically, we examine the effect of oil price shocks and macroeconomic shocks from developed trading partners on Nigerian macroeconomic performances in order to establish pattern of reactions to these shocks in the country. We employ global vector autoregression (GVAR) comprising of the US, EU, China, Japan and Nigeria as the reference country. The adoption as of this method of estimation is necessitated by its capability to effectively model complex high-dimensional system and also offers adequate tools to deal with the curse of dimensionality that can arise from a study of this nature. Having critically examined the econometric properties of our GVAR model, the results from our estimation based on impulse response function show that oil price shocks have direct effect on real gross domestic product and exchange rate in Nigeria but variables like inflation and short-term interest rate do not show immediate response to the shocks. The results also indicate that macroeconomic variables such as short-term interest and inflation show immediate responses to shocks to counterpart variables in developed countries. Based on this, the study concludes that Nigerian economy is vulnerable to external shocks and such shocks are not limited to oil price shocks. Other form of shocks such as growth spillover and financial shocks from developed countries are also relevant in shaping the macroeconomic performances in Nigeria.
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    Empirical Analysis of the Nexus between Saving and Economic Growth in Selected African Countries (1981–2014)
    (SAGE, 2017) Bolarinwa, Segun Thompson; Obembe, Olufemi B.
    This empirical study investigates the direction of causality between gross domestic saving and economic growth among the six sub-Saharan African fastest growing economies as reported by African Development Bank between 1981 and 2014 using the recently developed methodologies of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the Toda and Yamamoto causality test. The result shows the existence of unidirectional causality running from economic growth to gross domestic saving for Ghana and Burkina Faso, while gross domestic saving Granger causes economic growth in Liberia, Niger and Sierra Leone, indicating a unidirectional causality. However, no causality is recorded for Nigeria. The empirical study, therefore, concludes that the direction of causality is mixed and country-specific among the sub-Saharan African fastest growing economies.
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    Empirical Analysis of the Nexus between Saving and Economic Growth in Selected African Countries (1981–2014)
    (SAGE, 2017) Bolarinwa, Segun Thompson; Obembe, Olufemi B.
    This empirical study investigates the direction of causality between gross domestic saving and economic growth among the six sub-Saharan African fastest growing economies as reported by African Development Bank between 1981 and 2014 using the recently developed methodologies of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the Toda and Yamamoto causality test. The result shows the existence of unidirectional causality running from economic growth to gross domestic saving for Ghana and Burkina Faso, while gross domestic saving Granger causes economic growth in Liberia, Niger and Sierra Leone, indicating a unidirectional causality. However, no causality is recorded for Nigeria. The empirical study, therefore, concludes that the direction of causality is mixed and country-specific among the sub-Saharan African fastest growing economies.
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    Real Estate Security and Other Investment Assets
    (Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2017-04) Bashar.m, Nuhu
    Purpose – Quite a substantial number of academic papers have examined the performance of both direct and indirect real estate relative to other investment assets. While these studies are valuable in the field of real estate investment performance measurements, a gap still exist in the literature on the comparative performance of investment assets in the various sectors of the stock markets of most emerging economies. This paper aims to fill the gap by providing analysis of the historical performance of real estate and other securities in the Nigerian capital market. Design/methodology/approach – Annual open and closing market prices of shares and dividend of sampled listed companies in addition to data on all share index (ASI), consumer price index (CPI) and yield on 90‐days T‐Bill were obtained for the period 1999‐2005. These were then analysed using descriptive, risk‐adjusted measures and regression models. Findings – The empirical evidence suggests that while real estate outperformed the market on a nominal basis, it underperformed the market stock on a risk‐adjusted basis over the time period of analysis. Unexpectedly, real estate security did not provide a good protection against inflation and is also uncorrelated with the stock market. Originality/value – This paper provides empirical evidence of the investment characteristic of indirect real estate investment in Nigeria. The results suggest that real estate security does not after all provide a good substitute to direct real estate investment.
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    Output Gap, Money Growth and Interest Rate in Japan: Evidence from Wavelet Analysis
    (SAGE publisher, 2018) Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; Olayeni, Olaolu Richard; Jahromi, Reza Sherafatian; Adejonwo, Olofin Sodik
    This article investigated the relationship between output, money and interest rate, using wavelet tools for the period 1972–2017. Application of such tools is helpful in answering particularly two questions: first, what the strength and direction of the causal relationships between money, output and interest rate is, and second, whether the relationship is cyclical or anti-cyclical in nature. Findings from this article show that output and money are highly coherent in low, middle and high frequencies, and coherence increases while controlling for interest rate, with money growth as the leading variable most of the time across frequencies. Output and interest rate are equally highly coherent, mostly at high frequency and some bits of middle frequency; coherence increases with the control for money, and interest rate often times leads the relationship. Also, money and interest rate are coherent at low, middle and high frequencies with interest rate leading the relationship, and controlling the effect of output increases the coherence at some times and decreases at other times. There are observable evidences of both cyclical and anti-cyclical relationships among the variables. Policy decisions should be cautious of shortrun moves in order not to trigger undesired long-run outcomes since no difference is observed in the direction of causation over time–frequency
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    Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment and Green Growth in Nigeria: Any Spillovers?
    (2019-01) Adejumo, Akintoye V.; Asongu, Simplice A.
    Globally, investments in physical and human capital have been identified to foster real economic growth and development in any economy. Investments, which could be domestic or foreign, have been established in the literature as either complements or substitutes in varying scenarios. While domestic investments bring about endogenous growth processes, foreign investment, though may be exogenous to growth, has been identified to bring about productivity and ecological spillovers. In view of these competing–conflicting perspectives, this chapter examines the differential impacts of domestic and foreign investments on green growth in Nigeria during the period 1970-2017. The empirical evidence is based on Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Granger causality estimates. Also, the study articulates the prospects for growth sustainability via domestic or foreign investments in Nigeria. The results show that domestic investment increases CO2 emissions in the short run while foreign investment decreases CO2 emissions in the long run. When the dataset is decomposed into three sub-samples in the light of cycles of investments within the trend analysis, findings of the third sub-sample (i.e. 2001-2017) reveal that both types of investments decrease CO2 emissions in the long run while only domestic investment has a negative effect on CO2 emissions in the short run. This study therefore concludes that as short-run distortions even out in the long-run, FDI and domestic investments has prospects for sustainable development in Nigeria through green growth.
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    The Indian inflation–growth relationship revisited: robust evidence from time–frequency analysis
    (Taylor and Francis group, 2019-06-03) Tiwari, kumar.A; Olayeni, Richard.O; Olofin, Adejonwo.S; Chang, Tsangyao
    This article re-visits the inflation–growth nexus in India using the tools of wavelet, i.e. wavelet correlation, wavelet cross-correlation and scale by scale Granger causality test. Wavelet crosscorrelation analysis shows that at the shortest scales inflation and economic growth were independent; at medium scales, there exists feedback effect; and at higher scales, only economic growth is leading to inflation. Furthermore, we find: (a) high and increasing dependence between inflation and economic growth, particularly after mid-2002; (b) high-frequency components of economic growth Granger-cause low-frequency component of CPI-based inflation and vice-versa, and at all scales economic growth Granger-cause inflation at scales of 4–6 and no evidence of causality was detected from WPI-based inflation to economic growth; (c) results indicate that there is no long-run causal link between inflation and economic growth. This study presents new insights for policymakers to sustain economic development by using inflation as an economic tool in India.