Department of Economics-Journal Articles

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Journal Articles (Economics)

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    Empirical Analysis of the Nexus between Saving and Economic Growth in Selected African Countries (1981–2014)
    (SAGE, 2017) Bolarinwa, Segun Thompson; Obembe, Olufemi B.
    This empirical study investigates the direction of causality between gross domestic saving and economic growth among the six sub-Saharan African fastest growing economies as reported by African Development Bank between 1981 and 2014 using the recently developed methodologies of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the Toda and Yamamoto causality test. The result shows the existence of unidirectional causality running from economic growth to gross domestic saving for Ghana and Burkina Faso, while gross domestic saving Granger causes economic growth in Liberia, Niger and Sierra Leone, indicating a unidirectional causality. However, no causality is recorded for Nigeria. The empirical study, therefore, concludes that the direction of causality is mixed and country-specific among the sub-Saharan African fastest growing economies.
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    Open Access
    Empirical Analysis of the Nexus between Saving and Economic Growth in Selected African Countries (1981–2014)
    (SAGE, 2017) Bolarinwa, Segun Thompson; Obembe, Olufemi B.
    This empirical study investigates the direction of causality between gross domestic saving and economic growth among the six sub-Saharan African fastest growing economies as reported by African Development Bank between 1981 and 2014 using the recently developed methodologies of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the Toda and Yamamoto causality test. The result shows the existence of unidirectional causality running from economic growth to gross domestic saving for Ghana and Burkina Faso, while gross domestic saving Granger causes economic growth in Liberia, Niger and Sierra Leone, indicating a unidirectional causality. However, no causality is recorded for Nigeria. The empirical study, therefore, concludes that the direction of causality is mixed and country-specific among the sub-Saharan African fastest growing economies.
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    External shocks and macroeconomic responses in Nigeria: A global VAR approach
    (Cogent Economics & Finance, 2016-10-17) Oyelam, Lukman Oyeyinka; Olomola, P.A.
    : This study investigates the macroeconomic responses of Nigerian economy to external shock between 1986 and 2014. Specifically, we examine the effect of oil price shocks and macroeconomic shocks from developed trading partners on Nigerian macroeconomic performances in order to establish pattern of reactions to these shocks in the country. We employ global vector autoregression (GVAR) comprising of the US, EU, China, Japan and Nigeria as the reference country. The adoption as of this method of estimation is necessitated by its capability to effectively model complex high-dimensional system and also offers adequate tools to deal with the curse of dimensionality that can arise from a study of this nature. Having critically examined the econometric properties of our GVAR model, the results from our estimation based on impulse response function show that oil price shocks have direct effect on real gross domestic product and exchange rate in Nigeria but variables like inflation and short-term interest rate do not show immediate response to the shocks. The results also indicate that macroeconomic variables such as short-term interest and inflation show immediate responses to shocks to counterpart variables in developed countries. Based on this, the study concludes that Nigerian economy is vulnerable to external shocks and such shocks are not limited to oil price shocks. Other form of shocks such as growth spillover and financial shocks from developed countries are also relevant in shaping the macroeconomic performances in Nigeria.
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    Output Gap, Money Growth and Interest Rate in Japan: Evidence from Wavelet Analysis
    (SAGE publisher, 2018) Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; Olayeni, Olaolu Richard; Jahromi, Reza Sherafatian; Adejonwo, Olofin Sodik
    This article investigated the relationship between output, money and interest rate, using wavelet tools for the period 1972–2017. Application of such tools is helpful in answering particularly two questions: first, what the strength and direction of the causal relationships between money, output and interest rate is, and second, whether the relationship is cyclical or anti-cyclical in nature. Findings from this article show that output and money are highly coherent in low, middle and high frequencies, and coherence increases while controlling for interest rate, with money growth as the leading variable most of the time across frequencies. Output and interest rate are equally highly coherent, mostly at high frequency and some bits of middle frequency; coherence increases with the control for money, and interest rate often times leads the relationship. Also, money and interest rate are coherent at low, middle and high frequencies with interest rate leading the relationship, and controlling the effect of output increases the coherence at some times and decreases at other times. There are observable evidences of both cyclical and anti-cyclical relationships among the variables. Policy decisions should be cautious of shortrun moves in order not to trigger undesired long-run outcomes since no difference is observed in the direction of causation over time–frequency
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    Real Estate Security and Other Investment Assets
    (Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2017-04) Bashar.m, Nuhu
    Purpose – Quite a substantial number of academic papers have examined the performance of both direct and indirect real estate relative to other investment assets. While these studies are valuable in the field of real estate investment performance measurements, a gap still exist in the literature on the comparative performance of investment assets in the various sectors of the stock markets of most emerging economies. This paper aims to fill the gap by providing analysis of the historical performance of real estate and other securities in the Nigerian capital market. Design/methodology/approach – Annual open and closing market prices of shares and dividend of sampled listed companies in addition to data on all share index (ASI), consumer price index (CPI) and yield on 90‐days T‐Bill were obtained for the period 1999‐2005. These were then analysed using descriptive, risk‐adjusted measures and regression models. Findings – The empirical evidence suggests that while real estate outperformed the market on a nominal basis, it underperformed the market stock on a risk‐adjusted basis over the time period of analysis. Unexpectedly, real estate security did not provide a good protection against inflation and is also uncorrelated with the stock market. Originality/value – This paper provides empirical evidence of the investment characteristic of indirect real estate investment in Nigeria. The results suggest that real estate security does not after all provide a good substitute to direct real estate investment.